Liberal democrats

‘An era of five-party politics’: John Curtice on the significance of the local elections

20 min listen

Legendary pollster Prof Sir John Curtice joins the Spectator’s deputy political editor James Heale to look ahead to next week’s local elections. The actual number of seats may be small, as John points out, but the political significance could be much greater. If polling is correct, Reform could win a ‘fresh’ by-election for the first time, the mayoralties could be shared between three or more parties, and we could see a fairly even split in terms of vote share across five parties (Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives, the Green party, and Reform UK).  The 2024 general election saw five GB-wide parties contest most seats for the first time. These set

The secret behind Reform’s local election campaign

It is an irony of Brexit that, since we left the EU, British politics has become more European. The local elections on Thursday will put another nail in the coffin of the two-party system that has dominated the UK for 100 years. Labour and the Conservatives now poll a combined 45 per cent of the vote: half the country want someone different. ‘Welcome to the age of five-party politics,’ says one Tory candidate. Alongside 1,600 council wards up for election, there are four metro mayoralties too. The reintroduction of first-past-the-post means that contests in the west of England, Cambridgeshire and Hull are four-horse races. Ten years ago, Ed Miliband’s ‘35

How the Liberal Democrats conquered Middle England

17 min listen

The Liberal Democrats’ foreign affairs spokesperson Calum Miller, elected as the new MP for Bicester and Woodstock last year, joins James Heale to talk about the ambitions of the party that became the largest third party in Parliament in 100 years at the 2024 general election. They want to overtake the Conservatives to be the second party in local government – could they one day overtake the Tories to become the official opposition?  A former civil servant, Oxford University policy manager and councillor, Calum joins Coffee House Shots to talk about why he got into politics, how Brexit radicalised his desire for good governance and why, for all the fun,

How will the parties judge success at the local elections?

14 min listen

With just over two weeks to go until the May elections, the latest national polling suggests an almost three-way split between Reform, Labour and the Conservatives. But will this translate to the locals? And, given these particular seats were last contested in 2021 amidst the ‘Boris wave’, how will the parties judge success?  The Spectator’s deputy political editor James Heale and More in Common’s Luke Tryl join Lucy Dunn to discuss. Will the story of the night be Tory losses and Reform  gains? Or will it be about the government’s performance against opposition parties? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Should Starmer impose retaliatory tariffs? Plus local elections lookahead

14 min listen

It’s World Tariff Day – or Liberation Day, depending on what you prefer to call it – but we won’t know for certain what levies Donald Trump will impose on the world until around 9 p.m. this evening. Sources are speculating that Trump still isn’t 100 per cent sure himself. But as the UK awaits its fate, what is the polling saying: should Starmer stand up to Trump? Also on the podcast, it’s just under a month until the local elections, and we have seen big launch events from Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats. These are the parties expecting to do well – potentially winning upwards of 400 council

The Daisy Cooper Edition

35 min listen

Daisy Cooper has been a stalwart of the Liberal Democrats for over a decade. From councillor to MP, she has served as the deputy leader of the party since 2020. First elected to parliament in 2019, she came to prominence when she represented the party in two of the general election debates earlier this year.  On the podcast, Daisy talks to Katy Balls about her ambition to be a conductor, how she created her first job, and whether she’d like to be leader one day. As the Liberal Democrats are now the largest third party in Parliament for 100 years – with 72 MPs – Daisy tells Katy what it’s

Ed Davey’s game plan

Ed Davey owes much of his election success to Boris Johnson – and in more ways than one. The slide-loving, bungee-jumping, paddleboard-slipping Lib Dem leader has, like Johnson on his zipwire, learned how to capture media attention while evading being placed on a conventional political axis. One day he’s intoning soulfully on social care in the Commons; the next rocking up to party conference on a jet ski. He wants inheritance tax hiked but decries Labour’s plans for VAT on school fees. Such shenanigans enabled him in the election to appear both serious and silly, left and right, using any publicity to deliver ruthlessly crafted messages on health, sewage and

Where do the Lib Dems go next?

11 min listen

Liberal Democrat Conference wraps up today in Brighton. It could well be the happiest conference we visit this season with the party riding high after winning 72 seats at the election. The challenge that they face now is improving on that number, providing some opposition to the Labour party and protecting their new Surrey MPs once the new Tory leader is decided. We have heard Ed Davey speak passionately on social care, but can they carve a distinct position on other big policy issues, such as Europe? Or the NHS?  Katy Balls speaks to James Heale and Stephen Bush, associate editor of the Financial Times. 

Why the Lib Dems did so well

It has been quite a 14 years for the Liberal Democrats – from the coalition in 2010 to near total wipe-out in 2015. Things barely improved in the two elections after that. They even managed to lose then-leader Jo Swinson’s seat in 2019. Five years on, the party has secured 71 seats, a gain of 63 and the party’s highest ever total. They haven’t quite managed to become the official opposition but return to the new parliament as the third-largest party. The Lib Dems have benefited from ruthless targeting One of their gains includes David Cameron’s old seat of Witney on a swing of over 15 per cent. They also

Have the Tories given up on the Red Wall?

13 min listen

Yet another three MRP polls landed today – and none of them look pretty for the Conservative party. This comes as Boris Johnson rules out helping on the campaign trail as reports say that the party has given up on the Red Wall. On the episode, James Heale talks to Katy Balls and conservative commentator Paul Goodman about why the Tories will continue to struggle to close the poll gap given the roles played by the Liberal Democrats and Reform. Produced by Cindy Yu.

Why aren’t the Lib Dems doing better?

16 min listen

The Liberal Democrats began their 2024 campaigning this week by unveiling a huge poster branding them as ‘Ed Davey’s Tory Removal Service’, but they will have to be more than just the ‘none of the above party’ if they hope to make a difference come the election. What do the Lib Dems stand for? And can they turn by-election success into election success?  Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Nick Tyrone, author of the This Week in Brexitland substack. Produced by Oscar Edmondson. The Spectator is hiring! We are looking for a new producer to join our broadcast team working across our suite of podcasts – including this one – as

A Lib-Lab coalition would be hilarious

Talk of a new Labour-Lib Dem coalition is in the air. This is piquantly nostalgic to those of us whose earliest political memories were forged in the fire of the red-hot excitement of David Steel and Jim Callaghan’s short-lived Lib-Lab pact of 1977-78. My initial reaction, along with many others I’m sure, was a guttural ‘oh God no’. But a moment later a different aspect of it occurred to me, in a fine example of what the young people call ‘cope’. My banter senses started to tingle. Because, yes, it would drag out and exacerbate the country’s current despairing decline. But it would also be hilarious. PR might very well

Why aren’t the Lib Dems doing better?

This weekend, the Liberal Democrats announced that they are mounting a ‘blue wall’ offensive, a campaign aimed at affluent voters in Tory-held seats located in the south of England. The theme of this campaign will be the Tories’ handling of the NHS, which the Lib Dems have done local polling on and discovered might be a vote winner in these areas. ‘Might be’ is key here because if you look at nationwide polling, you have to wonder how many seats the Lib Dems are actually capable of winning, even if the Conservatives do fall apart before the next general election. Rishi Sunak hasn’t turned the polls around for the Tories

After Boris: what will politics look like?

Boris Johnson has so dominated politics for the past few years that it is hard to imagine things without him. His premiership, though relatively brief, has been both eventful and consequential. With him in Downing Street, there was a constant – and exhausting – sense of drama, with frequent cast changes and plot twists. But next week Johnson’s run as Prime Minister will come to an end. Of course, he will not disappear entirely. There will be speeches and memoirs and his comments are bound to attract attention, which will make his successor nervous. Johnson, as previous Tory leaders will attest, knows how to disrupt the news agenda. Already he

Could the Liberal Democrats become kingmakers once again?

The narrative around the 2022 local elections looks something like this at present: Labour is strengthening their vote share in London, even taking former Tory citadels like Wandsworth and Westminster. Yet they are doing less well outside of the capital, where there is growth from the Corbyn era but it’s looking much smaller than they had hoped. If similar dynamics continue, the next general election is going to be close, probably hung parliament territory. This makes the Lib Dem performance interesting. If the next general election is as close as today’s result, then a few seats here and there can make all of the difference to who gets to be Prime Minister.

The Liberal Democrats’ strategic ambiguity

This week’s local elections have mostly been framed as a contest between two options: first, whether the Tories will be given a punishment beating by the electorate over recent scandals; or, second, whether Labour will underperform, giving a second thought to whether or not they can win big again. But there is a third dynamic concerning how the Lib Dems will do, especially how well they will perform in parts of the south of England and particularly in Tory-held constituencies that they will be targeting at the next general election. The Lib Dems have managed some remarkable breakthroughs in recent by-elections, namely in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire, the latter being particularly

It’s time to take the Lib Dems seriously again

As far as seismic by-election results go, North Shropshire is one for the ages. The Tories had held onto the seat for 200 years before they lost to the Liberal Democrats last night. And their majority at the last general election was over 22,000. The Lib Dems managed to increase their share of the vote from 10 to 47 per cent, leapfrogging Labour in the process. But is North Shropshire the beginning of a Lib Dems resurgence? And, more importantly, how worried should the Conservative party be about the party’s rise? For starters, this is an even worse result for the Tories than their Chesham and Amersham by-election loss to

Katy Balls

Tory defeat in North Shropshire as Lib Dems take former safe seat

Ministers are waking up this morning to a big Tory upset in North Shropshire. In the by-election sparked by the Owen Paterson sleaze row, the Liberal Democrats have won the seat from the Conservatives overturning a majority of 22,949. In what has long been regarded as a safe seat for the Tories (they have come out on top in the area for almost 200 years), the Liberal Democrats won 17,957 votes with the Conservatives managing just 12,032 votes. This gives the Lib Dems a majority of 5,925. Labour came third with 3,686 votes. This result clearly will be tied to Boris Johnson’s leadership and the difficult time the Prime Minister

The Liberal Democrats have a dangerous vision for the City of London

Liberals have always set great store by laws and declarations. It was joked about Lord Loreburn, the liberal Lord Chancellor in the years before the First World War, that if told the Germans had landed he would immediately have taken steps to obtain an interim injunction from the Chancery Division requiring an immediate withdrawal. These days something similar seems to be happening as regards the Liberal Democrats’ approach to climate change. Last Thursday Ed Davey took aim at the City, which he has decided to add to the party’s growing list of climate change villains. In a curious interview with the Guardian he put forward a modest proposal to deal

Ed Davey’s nuclear U-turn

Sir Ed Davey has called on the government to ‘keep the British taxpayer out of’ the Sizewell C nuclear plant, arguing that a part nationalisation of the project would ‘be a total betrayal of taxpayers and cost every household in Britain a small fortune’. Ministers are reportedly considering plans to strip the Chinese state-owned energy firm CGN of its 20 per cent stake, bringing the costs onto the Exchequer’s books. Mr S is pleased to see the Liberal Democrat leader stand as a lone voice for fiscal prudence — particularly because he hasn’t always been opposed to cripplingly costly nuclear deals. Between 2012 and 2015, Davey served as secretary of